Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland

    Reed Kuhn is a Silicon Valley entrepreneur, and strategy and analytics consultant. He is the author of “Fightnomics: The Hidden Numbers and Science in Mixed Martial Arts,” the first book to quantify drivers and performance metrics in combat sports.

Three main card fights, including one title fight and one main event, have all ended prematurely due to fouls in the past two weeks. It’s a reminder of the volatility of the sport, but it’s worth noting that these events are also quite rare.

Fights ending with a disqualification or could not continue outcome make up less than 1% of fights in the UFC, historically. In the last five years, there haven’t been more than four such outcomes in a single calendar year.

So, while three of these outcomes put 2021 on an unusually high pace, bettors should take solace that bad beats and surprise endings, while always a possibility in MMA, shouldn’t decide your night on a weekly basis.

Now on with the back half of an action-packed March.

Prelims begin at 7 p.m. Saturday on ESPN2/ESPN+, and the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+.

Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.

Middleweight main event: No. 10 Kevin Holland (-170) vs. No. 7 Derek Brunson (+145)

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